Swaraat / Venkatraman
In Tamil Nadu, the “Dravida” political ideology had been successfully running without a challenger to its hate politics. Whether this “success”, is a result of widespread acceptance of its exclusionary ideology or is it because of absence of a credible alternate, is debatable.
After the euphoria of Independence had died down, By 1960s, Tamil Nadu had become a leader dominated political arena. The aura and charisma of leaders held sway assisted by the ‘larger than life’ image projected by pliant media. After the split of the DMK, the comparatively moderate AIADMK held power but still had to pay homage to the founders of the hate political ideology, albeit lip service.
As a result, the choice for the voters was between ‘in-your-face’ hate of DMK and the more subtle AIADMK. After the demise of Mr.Karunanidhi, DMK went to the hands of his son Chief Minister Mr. M.K.Stalin. With the help of the organizational framework (more or less set up by his father and naturally owing their fortunes to the family) and allied mouthpieces like DK and media, he took complete control of the
In contrast, after the demise of Ms. Jayalalitha, the tallest leader of Tamil Nadu post MGR era, (who had managed to keep even Mr. Karunanidhi from power for continuous 10 years) her party AIADMK floundered, fractured and somehow managed to still stay afloat. After 6 decades, the time was ripe for a national party to make its inroads into Tamil Nadu, where the separatist mindset of a few always suppressed the overall Nationalistic sentiments of the State.
With Congress already dead in Tamil Nadu and surviving to get some seats in the name of DMK, the job was left to BJP. It looked like BJP picked a winner in Mr. Annamalai, a former IPS officer from Karnataka, who is a native of Western TamilNadu. For the first time in decades, in the 3 years he was at the helm, the name and flag of BJP was prominent and in the frontlines of the media. His method was to make BJP as a talking point across Tamil Nadu. He succeeded.
Naturally with his oratorical skills and image of an educated person, he drew large following across all age groups. How did the party grow in a short span of 3 years? The answer lies in what I perceive as the pivotal decision of Annamalai: to cut ties with AIADMK. While it may be a risky move, it showed that it was a calculated risk. Even after the loss of 2021 TN Assembly elections, BJP as a party grew. How did it grow? The answer lies in the fact that Annamalai understood the fundamental problem of BJP in TN: What does BJP bring to the table and why should the voters choose BJP against the two established parties, DMK and AIADMK.
BJP under Annamalai set the narrative. TN BJP was always in the limelight, even with its own factional differences and inner party problems. BJP in TN, more or less became the face of principal Opposition party. For 3 years, AIADMK was nowhere in the picture as compared to Mr.Annamalai and TN BJP.
Whether it is in highlighting mis-governance of DMK or corruption by the ruling dispensation, it was BJP that was seen as the principal opposition in TN politics. The online presence of BJP, both by its IT wing as well as common public, overshadowed even the well-organized IT wings of DMK and AIADMK during his tenure. Ofcourse, his tenure had its own low ends too with him failing to win the Assembly as well as General elections. While that was seen as a failure at a personal level for him, the important point that is missed is what happened to BJP as a party. The party grew. It grew its vote share, it grew its cadre and it grew in the eyes of the people.
This is an existential crisis for a party like AIADMK which lost its larger than life leader, Ms. Jayalalitha. If BJP grows in TN, it will naturally occupy the space as the principal opposition to DMK which is seen as the dominant party. And being in constant limelight, always getting to be in the news constantly takes TN BJP into the minds of the people. In a state like TN where it is the swing voters who decide which party comes to power, to convince the voters to swing away from DMK without a charismatic leader is an uphill task for a party like AIADMK.
Even with a strong organizational structure, if a voter asks “what does AIADMK bring to the table that DMK does not”, there is no answer. I think this is where Mr. Annamalai made a strategic win by presenting BJP as a credible alternate to both DMK and AIADMK and this is precisely the reason, why both DMK and AIADMK were rattled.
In my opinion, by choosing to enter into an alliance with AIADMK, BJP has made a blunder. AIADMK has nothing to lose in this alliance. If they lose the elections, they will blame BJP again. If they win, they may ensure BJP does not win enough constituencies. After returning to power, if they work closely with Central Govt, DMK will call them as “Traitors of Tamils”. If they don’t work with Central Govt, it will be same rhetoric of DMK that will be used by AIADMK also against Centre.
Will vote transfer happen from AIADMK voters to BJP in Assembly elections 2026? Will AIADMK leaders and cadres keep away their differences and work towards a common goal? Will this alliance of BJP and AIADMK work in 2026 as compared to 2021? Only time will tell. However, no one can deny the impact Mr. Annamalai made in TN politics within a short span of time.